Wednesday, November 30, 2022

What could happen to Liz Truss after a budget dispute, from resigning to a no-confidence vote

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Ms Truss could become Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister if she fails to cement her leadership after the messy mini-budget

Liz Truss is only in her fifth week as prime minister and is already fending off plans to oust her amid growing unrest over her economic direction.

Prime Minister faces backlash over her £43bn tax-cutting mini-budget

Ms Truss has also grappled with vocal criticism from senior Tory figures and cabinet mates – with last week’s Conservative Party conference highlighting a major collapse in collective responsibility.

Their position has weakened in the days since, as the Bank of England was forced to intervene twice this week to reassure investors and the Office for National Statistics revealed the economy contracted an unexpected 0.3 percent in August .

Tory MPs fear the Prime Minister’s bold financial plan could hurt both the economy and the party’s chances of success in the next general election as Labor climb 33 points ahead in the polls.

As a result, rebels are already planning to oust her from her job.

here I takes a look at Ms. Truss’ options if her position as Prime Minister is in jeopardy.

Ms Truss, who was named to succeed Boris Johnson just last month, is unlikely to step down as Tory leader and Prime Minister of her own accord.

The result of the Tory leadership contest was announced on September 5 and she was appointed Prime Minister the following day. She has only been in office for 36 days.

It is therefore unlikely that she will voluntarily hand over the keys to No. 10 without being coerced into doing so by her colleagues.

But if party sentiment continues to turn against them, Tory MPs could force a leadership challenge.

If Ms Truss decides to step down, it will spark another Tory leadership contest, with the winner taking over both the party and the position of Prime Minister.

As we saw in the summer, the competition takes place in two phases.

In the first, Tory MPs stand as candidates. All Tory MPs then vote in a series of rounds to reduce the number of candidates until only two remain.

In the second phase of the competition, Conservative Party members will vote between the final two candidates.

With that process underway, Ms Truss would likely stay on as “caretaker” PM until her successor is elected, as was the case with Boris Johnson and Theresa May.

Ms Truss could be ousted from office if Tory MPs decide they no longer trust their leader, which will be done by a vote in the House of Commons.

To force a vote, 15 per cent of the Parliament party – currently 54 Tory MPs – must present a letter of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, who chaired the 1922 committee.

Once that threshold is reached, a vote of no confidence will be triggered.

This happened to Boris Johnson in June, but he survived the vote – which requires a majority of MPs to oust someone as leader.

Reports have already surfaced that MPs have not submitted letters of confidence on Ms Truss, but no one but Sir Graham knows how many have been submitted.

Under the current 1922 rules of the committee, Ms. Truss cannot face a vote of confidence during her first 12 months in office.

But that doesn’t mean MPs can’t try to change the rules or find another way to oust them.

Mr Johnson survived the no-confidence vote but was forced out of office after an avalanche of cabinet resignations that made his position virtually untenable.

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